Saturday, November 06, 2010

Brief comment on employment report

I don't have much to add on the employment report released yesterday, which showed a staggering increase of US employment by 151,000 in October, the first gain in five months. The consensus of forecast was an increase by 60,000. According to a Bloomberg report, it exceeded "all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists."

Everybody has, I guess, already been done with investigating thoroughly the details of statistics, which has little left to me for reading up the current labor condition in the world largest economy.

This employment statistics, especially establishment survey data, is quite notorious for subject to revision upside and down month by month. For instance, the change in employment for August was revised up from -57,000 to -1,000, and the change for September was also revised up from -95,000 to -41,000. But August change was just revised "downward" in September from -54,000 to -57,000.

I have been thinking that August and September employment should increase at least given a downward trend of initial claims for unemployment insurance. So, the large spike in October looks like including three-month growth. I guess October number would be revised down a bit next month, while August and September would see an increase in employment.

President Barack Obama described the current report as "encouraging" but "not good enough." What would Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke think about it? Some analysts criticized QE2 as being too little and too late, but should the job increase continue, markets would feel comfortable enough to support QE2 or the Fed would even start to consider pulling the Treasury purchase back for an exit strategy.

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