On the post-Mubarak Egypt
This blog is meant to be written for topics related to, mainly, economics, not politics. Politics is not my first choice, but the crisis unfolding in Egypt gave me a food of thought on the post-Mubarak era, which I think is rarely mentioned or imagined in the media.
We have to think of a new factor in assessing the Middle Eastern politics, which is rapidly emerging in the region. It's people, not authoritarians. What do Egyptians think now? Information available now on Egyptian protesters is pointing to one palpable feature: they hate the US, irrespective of fundamentalists or secularists. In fact, Anderson Cooper, CNN's renowned newscaster, and several of his crews were punched several times in Egypt, and other journalists from BBC or ABC news are also reported to be roughed up in the crowd. The reason is simple: those journalists are from the West which Egyptians hate.
Many analysts have a point to see that the Obama administration is so totally unprepared for the situation that their reaction is belated and awkward facing people's sudden anger, at a loss of which way to go. This analysis isn't unwarranted, but we have to think ahead of it. The thing is that even if Obama team moves fast to make its position clear to anyone, the situation wouldn't change so big: Egyptians hate Americans.
It doesn't mean that Obama should back up falling Mubarak, ignoring and if necessary suppressing people's demand for the resignation of a longtime ruler for the sake of regional stability. It's the worst way to respond to the crisis, and would ignite people's anger so much that another extreme regime is inevitable in African continent. Even so, it looks like that given Egyptians hatred against the US, the post-Mubarak government, be it fundamentalists or secularists, has little choices but to distance itself away from the US, which gets a room for China and Iran to have a say in Egypt's politics. Or the post-Mubarak Egypt would at least slightly lean toward the two countries, not to provoke the West.
In fact, Iran has already voiced support for the uprising, triumphing its Islamic revolution in 1979. On the contrary, China hasn't done anything but to issue a short statement in hope of stability and order. The country fears that uprising fans out to their own, which could undermine their polity, so it has no intention to get into other countries' turf right now.
However, if Egypt alienates itself from the US, now Egypt's top export partner, China might fill in the blank after the US leaves. Europe has no ability or intention to do that. China would be satisfied with a country as long as it's a good partner with China in trade or politics no matter how badly it governs.
The US should be ready to deal with anti-West Egypt and the resulting disruption of oil markets. It's time to think realistically.
We have to think of a new factor in assessing the Middle Eastern politics, which is rapidly emerging in the region. It's people, not authoritarians. What do Egyptians think now? Information available now on Egyptian protesters is pointing to one palpable feature: they hate the US, irrespective of fundamentalists or secularists. In fact, Anderson Cooper, CNN's renowned newscaster, and several of his crews were punched several times in Egypt, and other journalists from BBC or ABC news are also reported to be roughed up in the crowd. The reason is simple: those journalists are from the West which Egyptians hate.
Many analysts have a point to see that the Obama administration is so totally unprepared for the situation that their reaction is belated and awkward facing people's sudden anger, at a loss of which way to go. This analysis isn't unwarranted, but we have to think ahead of it. The thing is that even if Obama team moves fast to make its position clear to anyone, the situation wouldn't change so big: Egyptians hate Americans.
It doesn't mean that Obama should back up falling Mubarak, ignoring and if necessary suppressing people's demand for the resignation of a longtime ruler for the sake of regional stability. It's the worst way to respond to the crisis, and would ignite people's anger so much that another extreme regime is inevitable in African continent. Even so, it looks like that given Egyptians hatred against the US, the post-Mubarak government, be it fundamentalists or secularists, has little choices but to distance itself away from the US, which gets a room for China and Iran to have a say in Egypt's politics. Or the post-Mubarak Egypt would at least slightly lean toward the two countries, not to provoke the West.
In fact, Iran has already voiced support for the uprising, triumphing its Islamic revolution in 1979. On the contrary, China hasn't done anything but to issue a short statement in hope of stability and order. The country fears that uprising fans out to their own, which could undermine their polity, so it has no intention to get into other countries' turf right now.
However, if Egypt alienates itself from the US, now Egypt's top export partner, China might fill in the blank after the US leaves. Europe has no ability or intention to do that. China would be satisfied with a country as long as it's a good partner with China in trade or politics no matter how badly it governs.
The US should be ready to deal with anti-West Egypt and the resulting disruption of oil markets. It's time to think realistically.
posted by Akihiro Gotoda at
8:32 PM
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